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Finance and business leaders have warned that failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by then would send shockwaves through the fragile world economy, while President Barack Obama has predicted that a default would trigger economic “Armageddon”.
Boehner needs to secure 217 votes to get his bill through, a job made more difficult by a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) saying that the Republican leader’s bill would only reduce the deficit initially by $850 billion, not the $1.2 trillion that Boehner had claimed. Hardline conservatives are demanding still bigger spending cuts.
However, even if the bill were to be passed, the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, promised that the Senate would kill it and Obama has said that he would veto it.
A solution is most likely to come from negotiations between Reid and the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell. Reid is proposing raising the debt ceiling from $14.3 trillion until after the 2012 elections, in return for immediate spending cuts of $1.7 trillion.
But the CBO has also challenged Reid’s budget cuts. The office concluded that his plan would deliver $500 billion less in deficit reduction than the $2.7 trillion Democratic lawmakers had said it would save over 10 years.
Stock markets have remained relatively sanguine even as the deadline looms ever closer. The major U.S. stock markets fell on Wednesday, but the rhetoric in Washington has not yet triggered a major sell-off. Economists and market watchers argue that investors believe the two sides will eventually hammer out a compromise.
Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said he was “a bit perplexed” by the relative calm in the financial markets. “People just don’t seem to care that much,” he said. He said the markets seemed to be betting that, even if a solution did not materialise, the U.S. would pay its debt obligations and there would not be a default.
“We know people will continue to lend to the U.S. and we know that the U.S. will continue to meet its debt obligations,” he added. “If you want to invest in something really safe, where else do you go? Not the eurozone. It may simply be a matter of lack of choice.”
Dales said that the greater issue for the markets and the wider economy would be if the treasury was forced to make deep cuts in spending, a move which he said could send the still-fragile American economy into another recession should the cuts last for a week or more.
“A default is unlikely, but not impossible,” said Darren Winder, a trader at Silverwind Securities. Credit Suisse said that it saw the U.S. raising its debt ceiling by August 2, but leaving the bulk of key decisions until after the 2012 elections.Tags: Internet Marketing, money, Search Engine Marketing, Search Engine Optimization